Thursday, August 28, 2008
Misoverestimated
and what about the Bradley Effect?
Newly crowned Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama‘s lead over Republican John McCain in California has narrowed somewhat over the past month, a new poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California shows. ...[from] 50 percent to 35 percent [to] 48 percent to 39 percent
That ain’t even a dead cat bounce.
Barack Obama heads into his convention with a lead of no more than one to three points in most polls (a statistical dead heat) and at least one suggests he is now the underdog.
A Zogby poll on 20 August put Barack Obama five points behind his Republican rival, reversing the seven-point lead the pollster had given him the month before.
The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll on Thursday showed the Democratic presidential nominee up 6 points over rival John McCain, 48 to 42 percent, with a 2-point margin of error.
All that work all that hype, all that drama, all that set-building for a lousy 6 points?!? +/- 2???!?
Is this meaningful? Are polls useful indicators? Are people so sick of ‘em they’re foxing the pollsters?
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