Misoverestimated
and what about the Bradley Effect?
Newly crowned Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama‘s lead over Republican John McCain in California has narrowed somewhat over the past month, a new poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California shows. ...[from] 50 percent to 35 percent [to] 48 percent to 39 percent
That ain’t even a dead cat bounce.
Barack Obama heads into his convention with a lead of no more than one to three points in most polls (a statistical dead heat) and at least one suggests he is now the underdog.
A Zogby poll on 20 August put Barack Obama five points behind his Republican rival, reversing the seven-point lead the pollster had given him the month before.
The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll on Thursday showed the Democratic presidential nominee up 6 points over rival John McCain, 48 to 42 percent, with a 2-point margin of error.
All that work all that hype, all that drama, all that set-building for a lousy 6 points?!? +/- 2???!?
Is this meaningful? Are polls useful indicators? Are people so sick of ‘em they’re foxing the pollsters?
Posted by Claire on 08/28 at 04:11 PM
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