e-Claire

3D Now

Sharp's offering is the first notebook computer in the United States that lets customers automatically view 3-D images without wearing special glasses or downloading software ...Sharp already sells a cell phone that displays 3-D pictures in Japan. A year ago, 100 companies, including Sharp, Sony, Sanyo, Toshiba and the Japanese division of Microsoft, formed a coalition called the 3D Consortium to brainstorm ways to bring 3-D products to market. One goal: making sure the various companies' products work together. The ability to view 3-D pictures is not a new concept. Japanese companies seem to think it's the next logical step in the evolution of picture technology.

1. I wonder how long it will take and how expensive it will be to integrate this technology into the mainstream.

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   Posted by David Strain  on  10/14/03  at  09:17 AM

2. While the Gamer in me drools at the though of playing Homeworld 3 in true 3 dimensions, I don’t see any obvious benefit to average consumers on this one.  I fully concede that there may well be a non-obvious benefit to average consumers, benefits that become tangible as the prices fall and more of these screens become standard, causing software to be written for them.  (Yes, that seems like an inversion of what should happen.  But I get the feeling that a lot of software is written to take advantage of hardware capabilities rather than the other way around.)

   Keep in mind that Flat panel (as opposed to flat screen) monitors have been slow to show up on people’s desktops—they offer less resolution and lower refresh rates than standard CRT monitors at higher prices.  About the only thing they do better is sit on a desk, something that isn’t usually an issue at home, but almost always is at work…

   The case of 3D monitors is almost the inversion of the case with the flat panel monitor.  While the office desktop is usually not a bastion of innovation (though the Back-End computers often are), the game arena is where much of the technology develops.  Since they (gamers) end up having both the money and desire to field new technologies, they end up taking first-mover risks and subsidizing development for everyone else.  Without gamers we would most likely not have 3ghz processors.  In 5-10 years we won’t be able to buy a computer without a 3D monitor, even though you may have no need for one…

   Posted by Andrew Cory  on  10/14/03  at  09:20 AM

3. With this consortium working on it I think it will take no time a-tall for “all the kids to want one!” We really had no *need* for these electronic typewriters we all use; a need found us.

   Plus, think of all the new art forms emergent with this tech.  3D visual symphonies, theatre in the round, not to mention science and medicine…

   Posted by Claire  on  10/14/03  at  01:44 PM

4. It has taken about 3-5 years for DVD players to become big, and they still haven’t quite edged out VCRs.  Plasma TVs haven’t really caught on yet either.  Wait for the price to fall and the quality to improve we will see them taking off.  But I don’t expect that for most of a decade…

   Posted by Andrew Cory  on  10/14/03  at  04:06 PM

5. That’s because DVDs are annoying.  If not in *perfect* condition they skip, hang up, etc.  The drawbacks of VCRs are, at least, familiar.

   See “Whazzizname’s” Law about price over time.  [brain skip]

   Posted by Claire  on  10/15/03  at  05:31 AM

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